I'm like Downtime on this one. You say you can feel the shaft turning in the case. If so you should be turning the powerhead over. You need to know if the drive shaft is turning or not. If it's turning and not rotating the powerhead then the shaft is broken or splines stripped going into crankshaft, which if this is truly a low hr motor I would doubt but anything is possible. While in this process you will be doing what G is talking about on checking linkage because you will have to disconnect it to pull lower unit. Have you pulled lower unit drain plug to check for metal?