Also meant to mention ....... my theory as to why it happens later on Erie i..... things like wind direction can affect temps and water levels in the bays and harbors....... so makes bays a little less stable than say a inland lake....... north wind can fill the bays / harbors with cooler main lake water and cause them to go up quite a bit......... I think it's due to the changing water levels and up and down temps that delay the process ........ just my opinion though