fuel price coming down??

[beenfishin?]

well guys, I have been saying that if we all get together and quit "going", the fuel prices would fall quickly. This article proves that......

[New York - Some of the long-term factors that have pushed oil prices to record levels are starting to change.

In large part because gasoline prices are over $4 a gallon, demand for fuel in the US is falling for the first time in 17 years. ]

That means people are not going as much!! That's great! Here is a link to the entire article.

Some signs of relief on gasoline prices - Yahoo! News

[fishinRod]

thanks for the link, good read....................9.7 million barrels a day, that number is staggering, makes you really wonder how much of this stuff exists down there............then multilply that by $136 a pop, wow, kinda makes you feel insignificant in the broad spectrum of things

[crappiefarmer]

We are the start. It is also gonna take demand in China and India to drop also. China is using huge amounts of diesel for cleanup behind the earthquake. It is gonna drop like hell once the speculators get spooked and start dropping long positions and buying shorts. Charts show a drop back to 75 dollars a barrel pretty quick once the top in the market is confirmed. It looks like it is getting pretty close. When everyone just knows that oil is going to continue to go up is when it will turn down. when talk started about 200 dollar oil, I figured the top must be getting close. There is no way we can go that high and still have a functioning economy. The world would go into a depression that would make the 30's depression look like a picnic. The job of the futures market is too ration off supply when it gets tight and once that happens it will lower to a more moderate level. That is happening now so the top will be in soon. I HOPE. CF

[cook]

Yep,price will drop..people will go back to their old habits,driving more...then guess what

[FishCrazy]

Crappiefarmer you seem to posess some wisdom about these oil prices and you also sound like a trader as well. Is that true? Im not an oil trader but have seen recently that many on the idiot box are blaming speculators for the price of oil. I dont want to think that its their fault though. I think its the old fear and greed thing that has oil prices spooked to these levels but also Ithink that the OPEC nations are somewhat responsible as well. I recently read that China is building quite a coal liquification project to ensure their continued supply of fuel from their vast reserve of coal. That was news to me when I stumbled across that info. I worked on some pilot projects in the early 80's before the subsidy for some plants was discontinued and have been wondering recently why we are not using our vast coal reservs to our advantage. I guess its the old story that no one wants to have a refinery in their back yard or the ecologists wont let us build any refineries. What do you think of synthetic fuel from coal? Is that a viable solution to our fuel needs?

[backtocrappie]

We are the start. It is also gonna take demand in China and India to drop also. China is using huge amounts of diesel for cleanup behind the earthquake. It is gonna drop like hell once the speculators get spooked and start dropping long positions and buying shorts. Charts show a drop back to 75 dollars a barrel pretty quick once the top in the market is confirmed. It looks like it is getting pretty close. When everyone just knows that oil is going to continue to go up is when it will turn down. when talk started about 200 dollar oil, I figured the top must be getting close. There is no way we can go that high and still have a functioning economy. The world would go into a depression that would make the 30's depression look like a picnic. The job of the futures market is too ration off supply when it gets tight and once that happens it will lower to a more moderate level. That is happening now so the top will be in soon. I HOPE. CF

Dang CF!! All this time I thought you only grew corn and shot deer.

[Eager Beaver]

The fuel prices coming down! Wow someone must not have let the dang stations here in on this info. The Price of Premium came down 1 penney the day before and went up 15 cents yesterday afternoon. When I went down to the lake to cut some trees up, the price was $3.99.9 a gallon for premium so figured I would gas up on my way back home. When I came back in the afternoon 4 hours later the price was $4.14.9. If you don't call this price gouging I don't know what you would call it.
With all the rain we have been getting around the country the Farmers haven't been abel to get into the fields which means a lot less fuel used, may be one reason we haven't been using as much fuel as usual.

[I gotta bite]

Oil closed over 140.00/barrell today. I dont think that it will be coming down anytime soon!!!!!!!!!In fact I think it will be over 5 bucks a gallon b4 you can say dont do it!!!!!!!!

[crappiefarmer]

Crappiefarmer you seem to posess some wisdom about these oil prices and you also sound like a trader as well. Is that true? Im not an oil trader but have seen recently that many on the idiot box are blaming speculators for the price of oil. I dont want to think that its their fault though. I think its the old fear and greed thing that has oil prices spooked to these levels but also Ithink that the OPEC nations are somewhat responsible as well. I recently read that China is building quite a coal liquification project to ensure their continued supply of fuel from their vast reserve of coal. That was news to me when I stumbled across that info. I worked on some pilot projects in the early 80's before the subsidy for some plants was discontinued and have been wondering recently why we are not using our vast coal reservs to our advantage. I guess its the old story that no one wants to have a refinery in their back yard or the ecologists wont let us build any refineries. What do you think of synthetic fuel from coal? Is that a viable solution to our fuel needs?

Yes, I trade commodities using options and just Agriculture related commodities because I have first hand knowledge of that business and use that as an advantage in my trading.

The Oil market is building in a head and shoulders pattern in the charts. This is a smaller run up then back down a bit, then a huge run up followed by a huge fall and then another small run up and small fall. Draw that on a piece of paper and you'll understand why it is called a head and shoulders. We are in the head of this pattern right now and in the throws of the worst of it at the moment. The head is also referred to as a supply blow off top. the market is doing its part to ration off supply. The problem is it destroys demand by finding the price that will make you quit driving as much. Works pretty good doesn't it? Now it also has to make the Chinese and Indians quit driving so much and it will find the price. The top usually comes in when everyone is expecting it to go much higher. Everyone thinks that the market is looking at now but it trades the FUTURES and is trading supply and demand months ahead of us now. When the market is surprised by something, It goes into a correction. This can be reports on demand dropping more than anyone thought it might. The market looks for signs that demand is being cut back when it comes to oil in this case. Until that is realized, the market is going to run higher very fast until something major happens. Like a stock market crash or some government report from some country saying that folks are not driving anymore because of fuel prices and are losing jobs at an alarming rate. These are just a few things that could cause an end to the run up in oil.

The Feds raising interest rates would make oil drop like a rock because
1) Commodities are used as a hedge in an economic down turn (or the big money pulls money out of the stock market and puts it into physical commodities like gold, oil etc)

2) higher interest rates make our exports more expensive and countries that import from us may find the commodity cheaper somewhere else. In this case oil.

Once the top is in it will fall very fast. There is an old saying in the market. "the bull has to be fed everyday but the bear hibernates and wakes with a vengeance". When the bear wakes it is going to be something. Many people especially those who don't know what they are doing but decided to play the futures market because oil is going to 200 dollars will lose their shirts when it turns at 150 or 160 and locks them limit down everyday for a week and they end up having to pay thousands and thousands, maybe more in margin calls.

I can't tell the future. oil could go to 200 but I doubt it. Not this time. Too much demand will be destroyed at 200. Your probably talking 7 or 8 dollar gas and I don't know about Y'all but I can't drive at that price. I imagine most other Americans won't be either. There goes an overkill in Demand and the market would crash to the point of hurting the oil industry. everyone would be out of work so no one would be able to buy gas. They won't let that happen. They might get close and that is all the market wants. Just to balance supply with demand. The answer to high prices is high prices just as the answer to lw prices is low prices. the market takes care of its self. government intervention just slows the inevitable.

As far as coal as fuel, As long as it can be refined and burned without making too much of a mess, then I'm all for it. I remember as a kid seeing the black smoke pouring out of the school chimney and looking back now, that didn't look so good. I'm sure things have changed a lot since then and it cvan be burned alot cleaner. If we can burn it as an automotive fuel then it would help with gas prices considerably. It would add to alternatives already there that will all eventually, ultimately stabilize the gas prices.

But as far as clean, save the planet attitudes go, China is building coal fired power plants with a new plant on line every 2 weeks. Last year they were cranking out new plants every 3 days. They are getting serious about making power and polluting, apparently. Those folks are tired of using candles. They might not be able to breathe but they can turn on the lights. They will have to shutdown much of their industry a couple weeks before the olympics to clear up the air. Thats how bad it is.

Guess who sits on the largest coal reserve on the planet? WE do. Guess where the Chinese are buying huge amounts of coal from? Yep.
If We don't use the stuff, someone else will.

But back to how high oil goes, If it goes much above 160, I'll be surprised. The head and shoulders pattern can be used to help predict how high it will go. In the first leg up, you measure the run. The head is not much more than the first run up. just starts at a higher price. We are beyond that point now and this market could soon run out of gas so to say.

The speculators are a natural part of the market, not an evil. Anyone who says they are evil does not know anything about markets. There goes most the politicians. The more regulation that is placed on speculation, the slower and more violent market moves will be and also fewer people will have a bigger effect on the market which can be dangerous. Markets can be controlled by a few for a short while in those situations. Once the signs of the top are in, speculators will be bailing out of the oil market in droves and the price will fall at the same pace and by then the price of balance will be discovered between supply and demand. Sorry for the book. CF

[crappiefarmer]

Dang CF!! All this time I thought you only grew corn and shot deer.

Hey man, This market stuff is just a hobby compared to the important stuff!:DCF