Probably nothing major. Maybe just silt in the water passages or debris in the impeller either reducing its efficiency or it has worn it to where it can't pump well enough to keep up at higher speeds.
If your impeller hasn't been changed in a couple of years, you might as well just replace it since it needs it and swapping it out will almost certainly cure your problem. If the impeller is new, you might try using the flush port on your outboard to flush the cooling system with a hose.
The tach jumping could be a spun prop. That's not catastrophic either. You can check for that by using a Sharpie to make a mark from the hub to the prop, running the boat for a while and then comparing the alignment of the marks.