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Weather Forecasters
Is it me or are our weather forecasters getting worse or what? They blew hurricane Mathew miserably. Now this stupid snow storm. They were saying my local would get up to 12 inches of snow. Then they dropped it to 4 to 8". We got about an inch of snow but a whole fricking bunch of freezing rain. I had a tent in the back yard full of my stuff from the flood that I was using for temporary storage. All the talk of 12 inch snows got me working mine and my wife's butts off the other night bringing that stuff in and taking the tent down so the snow would not crush it.
I would have been better off leaving the stuff in the tent cause now 2 rooms in my house are full of stuff and I got to move it again so I can get mey laminate floors put down this week.
I don't remember them missing forecasts as bad as they do now. Your better off doing nothing to prepare because You get hit by something different than what they forecasted. They did not say anything about flooding rain during mathew until a few hours before it hit this area and by then it was too late to prepare and sure as he77 wouldn't have saved any lives in my household cause by then, I could already see that they didnt have any better idea than I did on what was going to happen. I dont need a weather presenter to tell me what the weather is doing. Any idiot can look out the window. I need a weather forecaster that can get some kind of positive consistency and doesn't have to be right all the time but can make some good calls when it matters.
I know for our area, weather forecasting can be really difficult with the mountains to the west and the Atlantic to our east creating the marine layer and almost daily summer sea breeze thunderstorms but come on man! It has been Years with billions of dollars worth of money thrown at uping better forecast models and I swear if they ain't getting worse instead of better.
I know a couple really good indicators from mother nature that tells me when things are going to get nasty. One is sun dogs. The little rainbow/flare looking things you see out to the sides of the sun sometimes. You see them, to my experience you got a 95% chance of rain within the next 2 days of seeing it. That also goes for a ring around the sun or moon or Halos. It all means the same thing. Ice crystals in the incoming clouds are refracting the sunlight giving the effect of the sun dog or halos. Mostly these are seen the last 3 or 4 hours of daylight. Great weather indicators. I look for them all the time while doing fieldwork and when i see them, I will make plans with my work around them. They are that good. I have seen it rain when no one was calling for it but saw a sun dog a day or two before.
Another indicator to look for is the old calm before the storm. I have seen this with Isabel, Mathew and several really bad thunderstorms. If a hurricane is forecast to affect you on a certain day and the day before is eerily calm, Look Out! get prepared quickly cause your gonna get slammed. a few minutes to a couple hours before a line of thunderstorms hits can tell you the same thing. If it gets quiet, be vigilant and take cover.
These are some things that no billion dollar satellite can tell you about the upcoming weather. And Possibly could save Your life. If you look for them. They really need to up their game on the hurricane models. They were doing better jobs ten years ago than they are today. I still haven't heard a good explanation for the complete and utter failure of forecasting that storm. I remember the last I heard them say was...(Yeah, it went straight out from Hatteras and died) like they knew it was going to do that all along when in fact the Euro model had it looping back to Florida. The center might have went out off of Hatteras but the rain sheared off of it and went up the coast. They didn't know what it was going to do until it showed them and they watched it on radar do it just like everybody else did. How much do they get paid to do the same thing that I could do? WTH do they need a degree in meteorology for when all they do now is read off what a fricking computer is telling them its going to do. I don't need some nice looking model giving the weather if she doesn't know anything but what a computer tells her. She could be hideous looking if she knows her stuff cause thats what we need. Its the weather for cripes sake not a fashion show. And cut out all the PC crap on the weather channel with global warming. Its all cycles not that GW bull. Natural cycles. All kinds of cycles in nature. An easy one to understand is women. You know what I.m talking about. Stop showing stupid shows that have very little to do with weather and show the dag blasted weather and keep Your stinking politics out of it. Climate change has been going on since the earth was created. It has little to do with Man. To be that arrogant to think We could be that powerful to control weather is absurd. Its about control and making money. Pulled out of someones rear end.CF
The Original Woodsgoat Hater
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Feel better?Just remember Mother nature is a woman. Unpredictable in every way. Thanks for the tips on the sun dogs ,halo's and calm's before the storm. And sorry for your flooding. We know what that's like in Louisiana. Will be looking forward to you being able to post a woodsgoat story in the hunting forum. Danny
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Hey Ed, how about becoming our official weather forecaster? I'd believe you a lot quicker than the people that do it now. They are saying now that we didn't get as much snow as predicted because it sleeted instead. Oh well, I guess I better see if I can get my heat pump working. Its cold in the house and I'm out of wood. If I was younger I would go back in the swamp with my chain saw. But then I would have to figure out how to get it to the house. Getting estimates for new system this week. I need some coffee.
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I would have to agree with you CF!! I have been saying the same thing. They have switched algorithms, and are worse instead of better, at predicting! They also tend to, sensationalize here in tornado land. All I need are the facts so I can make decisions, I don't need no drama!
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True story from a couple years ago. One of inspection tasks is moisture testing of EIFS cladding. Briefly EIFS is an exterior siding that was sold as the next best siding. It is a barrier system that has no secondary drainage like house wrap that is applied under vinyl or brick. EIFS is glued directly to the wood sheathing. If there is a sealant failure, window leak or improper flashing water gets to the sheathing and framing and rots it out. On Mondays I have a bunch of voice mails from buyers and sellers needing inspections. On this Monday about the third call I tell the fellow I could do his inspection at 9:00 am on Wednesday if it's not raining, he says "do you think it's going to rain". I won't give his name but I will say his job description is "Chief Meteorologist" for one of the local TV stations. You know if I was only right half the time I'd be unemployed and my boss would be bankrupt from the lawsuits.
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You'll need more than coffee when those quotes for that system come in. Got a split unit at my house. replaced the outside unit with control board, fan motor, and compressor. New duct work also. I was quoted $5200 for that. Actual bill will be higher I'm sure.CFOriginally Posted by Barnacle Bill
The Original Woodsgoat Hater
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Oh they make me sick the way they dramatize chasing storms. Farmers in the midwest have told me how they see them on bad storm days coming down the highways like they own the place looking like a Nascar race at Talledega running the draft. Mike Bettes crying on the weather channel after his car flipped. all the boo hooing. If They hadn't been out there trying to play hero, it would not have happened. I know some of those guys are out there for pure science. But some are Glory Hogs, adrenaline junkies, or just plain stupid. They don't need to be there. Its just as bad with the hurricanes. Jim Cantore is a good weatherman and when he is covering the weather in studios, He is really into it and You can learn a lot from him but when he is out in the field, his head blows up bigger than the hurricane and most of the time he will make a big a$$ out of himself. Gets on my nerves. I just love watching someone dancing in the streets when they hear thunder in a snow storm while all the poor folks living there will have to deal with that event for at least a couple weeks after the "weather Champion" has gone. Maybe the "Weather Champion" should go grab a shovel and shovel some snow off some old folk's driveway while He is out there making a spectical of himself. Or maybe shovel some of that bull crap he is talking.CF
The Original Woodsgoat Hater
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You Know Boscoe, Somehow that does not surprise me at all. And that is a shame. What a bunch of Yo Yos.CF
The Original Woodsgoat Hater
2011 NWR Bash Yellow Perch Champion
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Ed,
Take a look at http://www.weathertap.com/
I've been using this for at least 10 years. It has all the tools: several radar modes that show basic, tornados, water accumulation, lightening, and a host of other parameters, satellite views that even show water content, models for 18 hours, and 84 hours, tropical and severe conditions. They have a 2 week free trial. The subscription cost is $7.50 per month and well worth every penny, and that covers cell phone also.
A few years ago, we had a tornado heading for area and it looked like it would come too close for comfort; I put my wife in the van and became mobile. I watched the tornado on my cell phone and successfully drove out of its projected path. That thing missed our house by only 500 feet and proved that we did the right thing.
I use the cell phone radar connection when I'm fishing; you can tell to the minute when you are going to get wet, and many times I have been able to move out of a storm's way, or get off the water before it hits.
Try it; I think you will like it, and it's more accurate than the crap you sometimes get from our local forecasters.
B-
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Saw a sun dog day before yesterday and tonight it is misting rain outside. old dogs called it again. I just wish there was a way of telling how much rain out of those things.CF
The Original Woodsgoat Hater
2011 NWR Bash Yellow Perch Champion
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